by Anthony Schaffhauser
March 2024
The Minnesota State Northern Agriculture Center of Excellence requested an analysis to identify the occupations in high demand in the expanding soybean crush industry, as well as projections of future demand for these occupations. The objective is to inform higher education investments and partnership development to fulfil the most pressing needs for workers in this industry.
The industry's North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code and title is "311224 Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing." This industry's U.S. employment grew 10% from 2017 to 2022, handily outpacing total private sector employment growth of 5% over these five years. However, the potential to supply sustainable aviation fuel (also called aviation biofuel) is expected to increase the industry's growth greatly. Sustainable aviation fuel use is expected to become mainstream to decrease the carbon footprint of air transportation.
Minneapolis-St. Paul International airport is a major air transportation hub, and soybean faming is prominent in Minnesota's southern and western rural areas. Thus, it makes sense for crushing facilities to be in Minnesota to supply the demand for soybean oil to be refined into sustainable aviation fuel. This analysis identifies the staffing needs of the crush facilities, focusing on those occupations that require technical training and education and that could be trained in two years or less.
Minnesota's soybean processing employment had a substantial increase in 2014, jumping from 533 to 637 or 19.5%. There was a 6% drop from a high of 653 jobs in 2016 to a low of 614 jobs in 2018, and employment has been relatively steady ever since. However, U.S. employment has been growing since 2018, increasing 10.2% from 2018 to 2022 (Figure 1). U.S. employment grew an additional 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023 compared to the first three quarters of 2022. Minnesota's employment also grew in 2023, increasing 2.4% in the first three quarters compared to 2022.
Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Industry-Occupation Matrix as well as consultation with people knowledgeable about the industry, we identified a short list of key occupations for the industry (see Table 1). Note that the SOC titles link to detailed occupation data.
| Table 1: Selected Soybean Crush Plant Occupations with Minnesota Wage, Education, and Training | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC* | SOC Title | Common Job Title | Current Demand Indicator** | Median Wage | Education Requirements | On-the-job Training Requirements |
| 17-3023 | Electrical and Electronic Engineering Tech | Electrical and Instrumentation | Four Stars | $67,675/yr | Associate's degree | Unavailable |
| 17-3026 | Industrial Engineering Tech | Process Engineer | Four Stars | $64,944/yr | Associate's degree | Moderate term on the job training |
| 49-9041 | Industrial Machinery Mechanic | Higher Level Mechanic | Five Stars | $65,425/yr | Postsecondary non-degree award | Long term on the job training |
| 49-9071 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | Maintenance and Reliability | Five Stars | $50,729/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Short term on the job training |
| 51-1011 | First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | Production Supervisors | Five Stars | $68,520/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Short term on the job training |
| 51-9012 | Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators and Tender | Extraction Operator | Three Stars | $50,408/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Moderate term on the job training |
| 51-9021 | Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders | Prep Operator | Two Stars | $58,380/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Short term on the job training |
| 51-9061 | Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weigher | Material Receiving | Five Stars | $49,678/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Short term on the job training |
| 53-7011 | Conveyor Operators and Tender | Elevator Operator | One Star | $44,985/yr | High school diploma or equivalent | Short term on the job training |
| 53-7121 | Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loader | Material Loaders | #N/A | $46,322/yr (U.S. wage) | #N/A | #N/A |
| * Standard Occupational Classification code | ||||||
| ** DEED's Occupations in Demand Tool indicator of current demand based on a ranking of all occupations with current demand data available. "Five Stars" is the highest demand corresponding to the top quintile rank, while "One Star" shows demand, but is ranked in the lowest quintile. | ||||||
| Source: DEED Occupations in Demand | ||||||
The occupations in Table 1 were selected because they either (A) account for a large share of industry employment in the U.S. Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing industry, or (B) a relatively large share of total U.S. occupational employment is in the U.S. Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing industry. Either way, these occupations are essential for the industry. Additionally, the two engineering technician occupations are on the list based on consultation with those knowledgeable of industry needs.
Compared to the $50,437 per year median wage for all Minnesota jobs, these occupations pay well. Most require no more than a high school diploma and short-term on-the-job training, and the highest education requirement is a two-year degree.
These occupations are currently in high demand. Six of the 10 are currently in very high demand in the overall labor market (current demand indicator of Four Stars or Five Stars out of five), while three others show varying levels of demand. The biggest factor in the demand indicator is the number of job vacancies (estimated from Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey), so larger occupations tend to show higher demand. For instance, Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders and Conveyor Operators and Tenders are small occupations with just an estimated 640 and 540 Minnesota jobs, respectively. In contrast, there are an estimated 26,760 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General. Larger occupations have more job vacancies because of more jobs. The fact that these small occupations show demand indicates the need for workers.
Also, note that we do not have Minnesota data on Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders, but other related occupations are in high demand. For example, Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators is a similar occupation, excluding the rail tank car duties, with a Five Stars current demand indicator.
Thus, even with relatively flat industry employment over the past five years, there is currently a need for more workers in these occupations. Occupational demand comes from the need for replacement workers, mostly from retirements but also from workers being promoted or otherwise leaving the occupation.
According to DEED projections, Minnesota employment in the Grain & Oilseed Milling industry group is expected to grow by 121 jobs or 3.7% from an estimated 3,383 jobs in 2020 to a projected 3,404 jobs in 2030. This industry group includes Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing, as well as six other specific industries.1 DEED does not produce projections for the more detailed industries. Additionally, the projections incorporate past trends through 2020, so the future impact of sustainable aviation fuel demand is not included. Nonetheless, this industry projection is useful as a baseline for the pace of growth expected without demand from sustainable aviation fuel production. The annualized growth rate expected is 0.4%.
DEED occupational projections are available for all but one of the essential occupations for soybean crush plants, and the U.S. projected growth for Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders is included in Table 2. Four of the essential occupations are expected to grow faster than the Grain and Oilseed Milling industry group employment, indicating competition for workers from other industries. Even those occupations that are expected to grow more slowly or even decline have substantial future demand from the need for replacement openings. For example, Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers has the largest expected net decline in employment, but anticipated replacement openings total more than 2020 employment. Thus, these occupations are expected to continue to be in demand even without growth in the Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing industry from sustainable aviation fuel demand.
The ethanol industry is a potential historic analog to what may be in store for employment in the Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing industry to supply sustainable aviation fuel. U.S. Employment in the Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing industry (NAICS 325193) grew 70.9% 2001 to 2006, an annualized rate of 11.5% per year.2 From 2006 to 2007 employment jumped an additional 26.4%, then in 2008 it jumped 30.6%, both from regulation implementation and a spike in gasoline prices. From 2001 to 2011 employment in Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing grew 211%, more than tripling from 3,254 to 10,121 jobs. Since then, employment has stabilized and was at 10,090 for the first nine months of 2023. If sustainable aviation fuel use generated employment growth like that for ethanol from 2001 to 2011, demand for the 10 essential occupations identified for soybean crush plants would surge much higher than it already is.
| Table 2: Minnesota 2020 to 2030 Employment Projections for Selected Soybean Crush Plant Occupations | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC | SOC Title | 2020 Employment | 2030 Employment | Net Change | Job Openings | ||
| Jobs | Percent | Replacement | Total | ||||
| 17-3023 | Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians | 1,982 | 1,958 | -24 | -1.2% | 1,804 | 1,780 |
| 17-3026 | Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians | 3,842 | 4,011 | 169 | 4.2% | 3,595 | 3,764 |
| 49-9041 | Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 8,032 | 9,547 | 1,515 | 15.9% | 7,450 | 8,965 |
| 49-9071 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 22,479 | 23,512 | 1,033 | 4.4% | 21,520 | 22,553 |
| 51-1011 | First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 11,932 | 12,378 | 446 | 3.6% | 11,830 | 12,276 |
| 51-9012 | Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders | 1,263 | 1,250 | -13 | -1.0% | 1,250 | 1,237 |
| 51-9021 | Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders | 1,092 | 1,099 | 7 | 0.6% | 1,187 | 1,194 |
| 51-9061 | Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 10,404 | 9,151 | -1,253 | -13.7% | 11,517 | 10,264 |
| 53-7011 | Conveyor Operators and Tenders | 479 | 508 | 29 | 5.7% | 577 | 606 |
| 53-7121 | Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1.6%* | #N/A | #N/A |
| * Minnesota data is unavailable. Projected percent change is from U.S. 2022 to 2032 projections (Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). | |||||||
| Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections | |||||||
The national BLS Industry-Occupation Matrix suggests that over 70% of Minnesota's employment in the Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing industry is in these 10 essential occupations. With 629 jobs on average in the first three quarters of 2003, that would imply at least 440 jobs in these essential occupations. If the industry tripled over 10 years as with ethanol, an additional 880 workers in these occupations would be needed. That would be in addition to the projected openings in table 2.
1 These six other specific industries are Flour Milling, Rice Milling, Malt Manufacturing, Wet Corn Milling and Starch Manufacturing, Fats and Oils Refining and Blending, and Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing.
2 This time period saw the phaseout of MTBE as an oxygenate with ethanol taking its place, as well as the first renewable fuel standards law in the U.S. in 2005. (History of Ethanal Production and Policy, North Dakota State University)
