DEED's newest round of long-term projections have been published, showing the employment outlook through 2032 in each region of Minnesota as well as statewide. The regional employment outlook is particularly useful to guide workforce investments and career decisions. Individuals and workforce development agencies alike want these investments to continue to pay off for a long time.

Starting with the big picture, total employment in Northwest Minnesota is expected to increase by over 10,300 jobs, a 3.9% growth, from about 265,300 jobs in 2022 to 275,600 in 2032. This is slower than our prior projection of 5.1% growth from 2020 to 2030, though this slowdown reflects that the prior ten-year period included job growth following the Pandemic Recession. By 2022, employment in Northwest Minnesota was already within 0.7% of its pre-pandemic 2019 level. So, restaffing was mostly complete by the start of the current projection period.

Nonetheless, this projected growth is still slower than the actual 6% job growth in the prior decade from 2012 to 2022. This reflects the demographic realities of a slowly growing and aging population—all the more reason to focus training and education investments on the highest needs. 

How many jobs will need to be filled to accommodate growth as well as to backfill jobs vacated by people leaving the labor force? So called "exit openings" result from retirement, additional schooling, caregiving, health reasons and the like. Not surprisingly, the occupation groups with the largest number of exit openings are those with the most current jobs, thereby the most exits. However, two groups with many exits, namely Food Preparation & Serving Related and Sales & Related, also have a lot of early career jobs where workers often leave the labor force for a time to attend high school or college. Think Fast Food & Counter Workers, Waiters & Waitresses and Retail Salesperson positions that are popular summer jobs for students.  

Notably, in every group there are many more exit openings projected than new jobs created. The upshot is that we expect large occupations to provide many job opportunities even with little growth or with decline, as with Office & Administrative Support. Conversely, even small occupations that are growing fast provide great opportunities, as with Computer & Mathematical. Growing occupations are often associated with less competition for open jobs, growing wages and more job security.

So where are the best opportunities in terms of the most openings and the fastest growth in Northwest Minnesota? Since we have projections for about 600 occupations in the region, the following table features some that require higher education. As mentioned, projections are useful to identify the occupations where an investment in education will provide a high long-term payoff. Wages are a great way to measure that payoff. Table 1 features the top six fastest growing occupations that also have at least 200 openings from a combination of growth and exits.

Table 1: Selected Fast-Growing Northwest Occupations

Note that all but one of the high-growth occupations featured in Table 1 have median wages well above the median for all occupations of $22.77, except Veterinary Technologists & Technicians. The growth and openings from labor force exits show the availability of jobs, and the wages show the payoff from the investment in education.

Table 2 features the top six occupations with the most openings from growth and exits, despite slower than average growth. Recall that growth for the total of all occupations in the Northwest is 3.9%. This demonstrates that an occupation can be a great opportunity even if it has slower growth. The wages also show a good payoff for education. The median wage for Nursing Assistants is below the median for all Northwest occupations, but the training is a minimum 75 hours. Also, employers often provide the training and employer reimbursement is available, making for a better payoff opportunity. Wages for Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics wages are just a hair below the median for all occupations, while LPNs are just above. Wages are much higher for Teachers and Construction Managers.

Table 2: Selected Northwest Occupations with Below Average Growth but Many Openings

These projections serve as a valuable roadmap for career seekers and for the education and workforce development community in Northwest Minnesota. As our region adapts to demographic changes and evolving workforce needs, making informed decisions about education and training will be more crucial than ever. While overall job growth may be slower than in the past decade, opportunities abound across various fields and education levels. Whether looking at fast-growing occupations like Nurse Practitioners and Medical Services Managers, or stable careers with consistent openings like Teachers and Nursing Assistants, the data show promising paths forward. The key is matching educational investments with occupations that offer both job security and satisfying wages.

For more information about employment projections in Northwest Minnesota, contact Anthony Schaffhauser at Anthony.schaffhauser@state.mn.us.