About
Employment Outlook provides projections compiled by both occupation and industry for the state and for six regional planning areas. These 10-year forecasts are updated every other year.
Data source
Projections are developed based on a national trend analysis model. Minnesota's industry and occupational mix are accounted for in the development of projections using Minnesota's Current Employment Statistics data and Occupational Employment Statistics staffing pattern data.
What Can this Tool Provide?
The Employment Outlook tool helps people to make informed education and career decisions. The tool is useful for
- planning by educational institutions
- business hiring plans
- evaluating alternative economic policies
How is the data formatted?
Viewable tables and graphs, downloadable files.
Definitions
Occupations are classified using U.S. Department of Labor's Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) typology. Industries are classified using the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS).
Data elements include net employment growth and net replacement demand over the projection period. Net replacement demand is the net need for new entrants to the field of work to replace workers who retire or otherwise leave the field; net replacement demand does not include ordinary “churning” movement of workers between jobs.
Program notes
The reliability of projections for individual occupations is subject to error due to the assumptions of the trend analysis method. Many unknown factors can and will affect the economy and employment levels over the 10-year projections period.
More about the data
Additional information about national employment projections can be found at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site.
Methodology
To avoid misinterpretation of the employment projections, please note the following limitations:
The 2020-2030 projections measure occupational demand only. When exploring career options, employment projections are most useful when used with other types of data, such as supply of workers in a particular occupation, educational requirements, wages, etc.
Employment refers to the number of jobs (including both full-time and part-time), not the number of employed persons. Since some people work at more than one job, fewer persons will be employed than the number of jobs listed.
Growth or decline is not expected to be constant over the 10-year period. For some industries or occupations, significant growth or decline may have already occurred early in the projections period. These is especially so for industries, such as restaurants, that were impacted the hardest during the pandemic.
Projections are more reliable the broader the industry or occupational categories and less reliable as the industries or occupations become increasingly detailed.
Movement of a large or dominant corporation into or out of the state, which cannot be reliably predicted, could greatly alter employment levels within an industry and invalidate the projections for that industry.
Despite these limitations, the projections in this report represent an extensive and valuable database for those interested in future employment patterns. This report can be useful for identifying areas of growth or decline, especially relative magnitudes of occupational employment changes. However, the projections are not intended to be precise point estimates of employment for each industry or occupation.
Parameters and Assumptions
Minnesota industry and occupational employment projections rely heavily on national industry and occupational employment projections produced by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS produces nationwide employment projections every other year. Minnesota projections are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) national projections, which can be found at www.bls.gov/emp/.
Industry Projections
The main steps in preparing industry projections included:
1. Estimating 2020 base year employment figures for all industries at the four-digit North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) level: Industry employment figures were based primarily on data from Minnesota’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Estimates for agricultural-related employment not covered in the above programs, self-employed workers, and private household workers were derived from 2020 American Community Survey data, 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) data, and 2020 Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment data. Total projection employment for 2020 was 2,975,000 compared to 2,904,000 for LAUS household employment, 2,776,000 for CES employment, and 2,707,000 for QCEW employment in 2020. All employment estimates are annual averages.
2. Projecting 2030 employment levels for approximately 250 industries. Linear regression models were used to forecast employment for most of the industries. Since Minnesota follows many of the same trends as the United States, a common variable used in the models was U.S. employment in the equivalent industry. Other Minnesota-specific variables included employment in related industries, population, personal income, labor force, and school enrollment Initial projections were reviewed adjusted as deemed appropriate.
Occupational Projections
Occupational projections were prepared using the Microcomputer Industry/Occupation Matrix processing system developed by the Utah Department of Employment Security, the National Occupational Information Coordinating Committee (NOICC), the Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies (ICESA), the National Governor’s Association (NGA) and the BLS. The major steps in preparing occupational projections included the following:
1. Determining an occupational staffing pattern for each detailed industry: Staffing patterns (the distribution of occupations by industry) were based on the 2020 Occupational Employment Statistic (OES) survey. In cases where response to the survey was low or missing in a particular industry, national staffing patterns or patterns from earlier OES surveys were used. The distribution of occupations in industries not covered by the OES survey were derived from 2020 American Community Survey data.
2. Creating a 2020 base year industry/occupation matrix: The occupational staffing pattern for each industry was proportionally adjusted to equal the 2020 base year employment figure for that industry.
3. Developing a 2030 projected year industry/occupation matrix: The BLS provided national occupational change factors (the projected change in the distribution of occupations within an industry between 2020 and 2030). These change factors were applied to the 2020 base year matrix, resulting in a new occupational staffing pattern for each industry. These new staffing patterns were then proportionally adjusted to equal 2030 projected employment by industry.
4. Calculating estimates for occupational labor market exits and occupational separations openings between 2020 and 2030 for each occupation, based on occupational separation rates developed by the BLS. More information on labor market exit and occupational transfer openings is available at https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-methods.htm.
Glossary
Period
For long-term projections, the projection period is 2020-2030 (updated biannually).
Numeric Employment Change
Numeric employment change is the difference in the number of jobs between the base and projected years. A positive number means employment is growing due to the creation of new jobs. A negative number indicates employment is declining in the occupation.
Percentage Employment Change
Percentage employment change indicates how fast employment is expected to increase or decrease during the projection period. The larger the positive percentage change, the faster employment is growing. A large positive percentage change is generally an indicator of favorable employment prospects. Likewise, the larger the negative percentage change, the faster employment is declining, and the more unfavorable the employment prospects.
Labor Market Exit Openings and Occupational Transfer Openings
In addition to job openings created by employment growth, job openings occur across all occupations when workers leave or separate from their jobs. Two types of separations are estimated for each occupation. Separations do not include workers who change jobs but stay employed in the same occupation. Labor market exit openings are generated when a worker retires or leaves the labor force for some other reasons. Occupational transfer openings occur when a worker switches jobs that involve a change in occupation. More information on job openings generated by labor market exit and occupational transfers can be found at www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-faqs.htm .
Total Openings
Total Openings represent the sum of job openings from employment growth, labor market exit openings, and occupational transfer openings. Total job openings for occupations projected to decline are labor force exit openings and occupational transfer openings minus projected job decline.
High Growth/High Pay Occupations and Industry
High Growth/High pay occupations (or industries) are those that represent at least 0.1% of total employment in the base year, have an annual median salary which is higher than the average for the current year, and are projected to grow at a rate which is higher than the average growth rate.
High Demand Occupations
High demand/ High pay occupations are those that represent at least 0.1% of total employment in the base year, have an annual median salary which is higher than the average for the current year, and are projected to have more total openings as a share of employment than the average. In order to highlight these occupations, data from employment projections (2018-2028) have been combined with current Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage data.
