by Tim O'Neill
December 2023
On December 7, 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau released updated estimates through the American Community Survey (ACS). These new 2022 5-year estimates are available for all geographies down to the census tract and block group levels. Additionally, the ACS data cover a wide array of vital information, including employment, educational attainment, income and poverty, housing, disability status, veteran status, and more. For this spotlight article, ACS data will be used to take a closer look at the Metro Area's labor force characteristics by age, race, and ethnicity and how the region's labor force has changed in recent years.
According to the new 2022 5-year estimates, the Seven-County Metro Area had a labor force size of 1,778,729 people. The labor force includes all persons, 16 years of age and older, who are either employed or unemployed. The bulk of the Metro Area's labor force is made up of those persons in the prime working age group or those between the ages of 25 and 54 years. In 2022 there were about 1,145,400 people in this group, making up nearly two-thirds (64.4%) of the region's labor force. Those slightly older, between 55 and 64 years, accounted for 16.9% of the region's labor force, nearly 300,000 people. The youngest cohort, between the ages of 16 and 24 years, accounted for 13.5% pf the region's labor force, nearly 240,000 people. Finally, those 65 years and over made up 5.3% of the region's labor force, 93,800 people. Combined, those 55 years of age and older accounted for over one-in-five (22.1%) in the Metro Area's labor force, equaling a large share close to or at retirement age (Table 1).
With its population 16 years of age and older equaling 2,503,656, the Metro Area had a labor force participation rate of 71.0% in 2022. This was slightly higher than the statewide labor force participation rate of 68.7%, and significantly higher than the national labor force participation rate of 63.5%. By age, highest labor force participation rates are among those between the ages of 25 and 54 years. This is why this age cohort is labeled the prime working age. Labor force participation rates top out at 90.1% for those between 30 and 34 years before gradually declining to 81.9% for those between 55 and 59 years. Such rates then begin to plummet, equaling 65.9% for those between 60 and 64 years, 29.1% for those between 65 and 74 years, and 6.8% for those 75 years and over. Labor force participation rates are also significantly lower for teenagers between 16 and 19 years, equaling 50.3% in 2022 (Figure 1).
Between the 2017 and 2022 5-year ACS estimates, the labor force participation rate for the total population 16 years of age and older in the Metro Area declined from 72.2% to 71.0%. While this seems a small decline, it is equal to thousands of workers. Data from the Department of Employment and Economic Development's (DEED) Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) back this trend up. Much of this decline is from older workers leaving the labor force, largely with retirements. The region is also still recovering from the exodus of workers from the labor market during the COVID-19 recession. According to LAUS data, the Metro Area's labor force was down about 32,100 workers between annual 2020 and 2022.
| Table 1. Metro Area Labor Force Characteristics by Age, 2022 5-Year Estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age Cohort | Population | Labor Force | Labor Force Participation Rate | Labor Force Change 2017-2022 | |
| Numeric | Percent | ||||
| Population 16 years & over | 2,503,656 | 1,778,729 | 71.0% | 61,656 | 3.6% |
| 16 to 19 years | 157,642 | 79,234 | 50.3% | 4,519 | 6.0% |
| 20 to 24 years | 193,205 | 160,616 | 83.1% | -799 | -0.5% |
| 25 to 29 years | 225,314 | 202,412 | 89.8% | -468 | -0.2% |
| 30 to 34 years | 234,004 | 210,814 | 90.1% | 5,973 | .9% |
| 35 to 44 years | 439,630 | 391,054 | 89.0% | 42,167 | +12.1% |
| 45 to 54 years | 385,986 | 341,099 | 88.4% | -25,103 | -6.9% |
| 55 to 59 years | 209,166 | 171,351 | 81.9% | 1,117 | 0.7% |
| 60 to 64 years | 195,151 | 128,601 | 65.9% | 16,361 | 14.6% |
| 65 to 74 years | 278,540 | 81,184 | 29.1% | 16,299 | 25.1% |
| 75 years & over | 185,018 | 12,622 | 6.8% | 2,573 | 25.6% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey | |||||
Between the 2017 and 2022 5-year estimates, the Metro Area's labor force expanded by 3.6%. This was equivalent to over 61,600 people. For reference, Minnesota's labor force size expanded by 2.6% during that period. The most significant growth in the Metro Area's labor force was for those persons between the ages of 35 and 44 years (42,167 people), with those between the ages of 60 and 74 years also expanding by a significant amount (32,660 people). The most rapid growth was for those persons 75 years and over (25.6%), as well as those persons 65 to 74 years (25.1%). Both older age cohorts witnessed labor force growth rates about seven times that as for the total of all people. A large decline in the labor force occurred for those persons between the ages of 45 and 54 years (-6.9%; -25,103 people), with smaller declines for those persons between 20 and 24 years (-0.5%; -799 people) and 25 to 29 years (-0.2%; -468 people). Overall, the ACS data clearly highlights major shifts in the region's labor force for Baby Boomers as well as Millennials. Generation Z is gradually making inroads into the region's labor force as well, with those between 16 to 19 years growing at a rate nearly double the total rate of growth.
Zooming in, Hennepin County added the most to the Metro Area's labor force between 2017 and 2022 (26,769 persons). This makes sense, with Hennepin County contributing the most to the region's labor force. In fact, with over 735,200 people, Hennepin County's labor force accounts for over two-fifths (41.3%) of the Metro Area's labor force. Scott County, however, witnessed the most rapid growth in its labor force between 2017 and 2022, growing by 8.6%. This rate was nearly two and a half times the growth rate of the Metro Area's labor force. Carver County (5.7%) and Washington County (5.4%) also witnessed faster labor force growth between 2017 and 2022 (Table 2).
| Table 2. Metro Area Labor Force Statistics by County 2022 5-Year Estimates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | Labor Force Size | Labor Force Participation Rate | Labor Force Change, 2017-2022 | |
| Numeric | Percent | |||
| Anoka County | 202,932 | 70.4% | 6,549 | 3.3% |
| Carver County | 60,394 | 73.0% | 3,250 | 5.7% |
| Dakota County | 249,078 | 72.1% | 8,228 | 3.4% |
| Hennepin County | 735,236 | 71.7% | 26,769 | 3.8% |
| Ramsey County | 297,326 | 68.5% | 2,465 | 0.8% |
| Scott County | 87,460 | 75.4% | 6,934 | 8.6% |
| Washington County | 146,303 | 69.1% | 7,459 | 5.4% |
| Metro Area | 1,778,729 | 71.0% | 61,656 | 3.6% |
| Minnesota | 3,117,089 | 68.7% | 78,247 | 2.6% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey | ||||
While the Metro Area's labor force has shifted older with time it has also shifted to become more diverse. In 2017 those persons reporting as Black, Indigenous, and people of color represented approximately 22.8% of the Metro Area's labor force. This was equivalent to just over 390,700 people. By 2022, the Black, Indigenous, and people of color's share of the region's labor force was equivalent to nearly 480,000 people, representing approximately 27.0% of the total labor force size. This is a significant shift. In fact, where the Black, Indigenous, and people of color's share of the region's labor force expanded by 22.7% (88,812 people) between 2017 and 2022, the white alone, not Hispanic or Latino share of the labor force contracted by 2.0% (27,156 people). In other words, recent growth in the Metro Area's labor force was entirely due to the increasing Black, Indigenous, and people of color population working in the region (Table 3).
| Table 3. Metro Area Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2022 5-Year Estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race or Ethnicity | Population | Labor Force | Labor Force Participation Rate | Labor Force Change 2017-2022 | |
| Numeric | Percent | ||||
| Population 16 years and over | 2,503,656 | 1,778,729 | 71.0% | +61,656 | 3.6% |
| White alone | 1,903,473 | 1,335,828 | 70.2% | -41,219 | -3.0% |
| Black or African American alone | 222,795 | 160,952 | 72.2% | 25,452 | 18.8% |
| American Indian and Alaska Native alone | 12,566 | 7,538 | 60.0% | -555 | -6.9% |
| Asian alone | 185,079 | 137,719 | 74.4% | 20,927 | 17.9% |
| Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone | 616 | 439 | 71.3% | -379 | -46.3% |
| Some other race alone | 65,480 | 50,174 | 76.6% | 12,526 | 33.3% |
| Two or more races | 113,647 | 86,493 | 76.1% | 46,275 | 115.1% |
| Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) | 143,227 | 111,508 | 77.9% | 16,521 | 17.4% |
| White alone, not Hispanic or Latino | 1,856,809 | 1,299,201 | 70.0% | -27,156 | -2.0% |
| Black, Indigenous, and people of color | 646,847 | 479,528 | 74.1% | 88,812 | 22.7% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey | |||||
Data from the ACS allows one to analyze specific populations by race and ethnicity. For example, those reporting as Two or More Races experienced, far and away, the most growth in the Metro Area's labor force between 2017 and 2022. During that period, this population's labor force presence expanded by 115.1%, equivalent to approximately 46,275 people. This rate of growth was 32 times faster than the total labor force's rate of growth. At over nine times the growth rate as the total labor force, those reporting as Some other Race followed those reporting Two or More Races for most rapid labor force growth between 2017 and 2022 (33.3%; 12,526 people) (Figure 2).
Those reporting as Black or African American (18.8%; 25,452 people) and those reporting as Asian (17.9%; 20,927) also witnessed rapid and significant growth in the labor force. Those reporting Hispanic or Latino origins (of any race) experienced a similar growth rate to those reporting as Black or African American and Asian (17.4%; 16,521 people).
Losses in the Metro Area's labor force between 2017 and 2022 were witnessed by those reporting as white alone (especially concentrated among the subset being white alone, not Hispanic or Latino), Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (-46.3%; -379 people), and American Indian and Alaska Native (-6.9%; -555 people).
While the Metro Area's labor force is becoming more diverse with time, about three quarters of the region's workers report being white alone (1,335,828 people). This is followed is followed in size by those workers reporting as Black or African American (9.0%; 160,952 people), those reporting as Asian or other Pacific Islander (7.8%; 138,158 people), those reporting Two or More Races (4.9%; 86,493 people), those reporting Some other Race (2.8%; 50,174 people), and those reporting as American Indian or Alaska Native (0.4%; 7,538 people). Those reporting as Hispanic or Latino (of any race) account for 6.3% of the region's labor force, equivalent to approximately 111,508 people (Figure 3).
Data from the American Community Survey can bolster DEED's Local Area Unemployment Statistics to provide for a more complete understanding of the Metro Area's labor market, especially its changing demographics. This becomes even more eye-opening when you zoom into the region, analyzing how the seven counties of the Metro Area are different in composition and change. For example, Ramsey County is the Metro Area's most diverse county in terms of race and ethnicity. In 2022 well over one-third (36.6%) of Ramsey County's labor force was Black, Indigenous, and people of color. Again, this was compared to a little over one-quarter (27.0%) of the Metro Area's labor force being Black Indigenous and people of color and one-fifth (20.4%) of Minnesota's labor force being Black, Indigenous, and people of color. Meanwhile, just over one-tenth (12.0%) of Carver County's labor force is Black, indigenous, and people of color. Yet, Carver County's labor force being Black, Indigenous, and people or color was the second fastest growing between 2017 and 2022 in the Metro Area (+43.3%). Anoka County, Carver County, Washington County, Scott County, and Dakota County all experienced very rapid growth in their respective labor forces reporting as Black, Indigenous, and people of color between 2017 and 2022. While growth rates were a bit slower, Hennepin County's and Ramsey County's labor forces being Black, Indigenous, and people of color grew the most significantly (Table 4).
| Table 4. Metro Area Labor Force Statistics by County 2022 5-Year Estimates | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | White, Not Hispanic or Latino Labor Force | Black, Indigenous, and People of Color Labor Force | |||||
| 2022 | Change, 2017-2022 | 2022 | 2022 Share | Change, 2017-2022 | |||
| Numeric | Percent | Numeric | Percent | ||||
| Anoka County | 161,434 | -6,055 | -3.6% | 41,497 | 20.4% | 12,604 | 43.6% |
| Carver County | 53,172 | 1,070 | 2.1% | 7,222 | 12.0% | 2,180 | 43.3% |
| Dakota County | 190,979 | -5,444 | -2.8% | 58,099 | 23.3% | 13,672 | 30.8% |
| Hennepin County | 516,175 | -5,922 | -1.1% | 219,061 | 29.8% | 32,691 | 17.5% |
| Ramsey County | 188,371 | -12,663 | -6.3% | 108,955 | 36.6% | 15,129 | 16.1% |
| Scott County | 70,613 | 2,309 | 3.4% | 16,847 | 19.3% | 4,625 | 37.8% |
| Washington County | 118,456 | -452 | -0.4% | 27,847 | 19.0% | 7,911 | 39.7% |
| Metro Area | 1,299,201 | -27,156 | -2.0% | 479,528 | 27.0% | 88,812 | 22.7% |
| Minnesota | 2,480,000 | -48,150 | -1.9% | 637,089 | 20.4% | 126,397 | 24.8% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey | |||||||
