By Amanda O'Connell
February 2023
In Southwest Minnesota, the current labor market presents a unique landscape characterized by many job vacancies now and an outlook for expected growth in the coming decade. The region is currently experiencing a notable demand for workers across various industries, with job vacancies spanning different occupational groups. Looking ahead, the projections from 2020 to 2030 indicate a promising growth trajectory in numerous sectors, indicating potential opportunities for job seekers and economic expansion in the region.
The data provided from DEED's Job Vacancy Survey, Q2 2022, offers valuable insights into the job market in Southwest Minnesota. The total number of job vacancies across all industries in the region amounts to 14,128, with a job vacancy rate of 8.4%. This is a 2,185 decrease in job vacancies from the previous quarter, but still the second highest number on record (Figure 1). The median wage offer across these industries was $16.55 per hour. Notably, part-time employment comprises 42% of the job vacancies, indicating flexibility in working arrangements. Temporary or seasonal positions make up 16% of the vacancies.
Among the industries, Health Care & Social Assistance stands out with 3,582 job vacancies and a vacancy rate of 12.2%. This sector offers median wages of $17.80 per hour. Furthermore, a significant portion of the vacancies (64%) in this industry require post-secondary education, highlighting the demand for skilled professionals in healthcare-related roles.
Manufacturing also currently has a considerable number of job vacancies, totaling 3,063. The sector offers a median wage offer of $17.46 per hour. Retail Trade, with 1,851 vacancies, demonstrated a higher rate of part-time employment offers at 77%. The median wage in this industry is $13.51 per hour, which is among the lowest in the region. Accommodation & Food Services, another significant sector, features 1,358 vacancies with a high part-time employment rate of 68%, and a median wage offer of just $11.57 per hour.
Educational Services has 834 job vacancies, with most requiring post-secondary education. The Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting industry has 745 vacancies, showing significant demand for farm workers as the agriculture sector enjoys rising prices, while Wholesale Trade has 579 vacancies to help move goods to market.
Transportation & Warehousing has 463 vacancies, with a surprisingly high part-time employment rate as employers look for more flexibility from their workers. Public Administration has 325 job vacancies, while Other Services has 290 vacancies, offering higher median wages. Industries like Construction, Information, and Finance & Insurance display lower job vacancy numbers in the region, while the Management of Companies sector offers a higher median wage. Overall, these data highlight the diverse range of job vacancies and median wages across various industries in Southwest Minnesota (Table 1).
| Table 1. Southwest Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey, Qtr. 2 202 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry | Number of Job Vacancies | Job Vacancy Rate | Median Wage | Part-Time | Temp. or Seasonal | Requiring Post-Secondary Education | Requiring 1 Year Experience | Requiring Certificate or License |
| Total, All Industries | 14,128 | 8.4 | $16.55 | 42% | 16% | 31% | 32% | 37% |
| Health Care & Social Assistance | 3,582 | 12.2 | $17.80 | 42% | 1% | 64% | 36% | 71% |
| Manufacturing | 3,063 | 10 | $17.46 | 30% | 38% | 16% | 30% | 9% |
| Retail Trade | 1,851 | 9.9 | $13.51 | 77% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 22% |
| Accommodation & Food Services | 1,358 | 12.1 | $11.57 | 68% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 5% |
| Educational Services | 834 | 5.2 | $18.42 | 39% | 34% | 74% | 84% | 70% |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting | 745 | 14 | $19.62 | 0% | 10% | 4% | 33% | 14% |
| Wholesale Trade | 579 | 7.9 | $17.83 | 31% | 11% | 20% | 41% | 54% |
| Transportation & Warehousing | 463 | 6.6 | $15.93 | 56% | 28% | 6% | 8% | 41% |
| Public Administration | 325 | 3.3 | $15.94 | 46% | 55% | 26% | 50% | 42% |
| Other Services | 290 | 6.2 | $23.43 | 4% | 0% | 50% | 11% | 50% |
| Professional & Technical Services | 263 | 7.3 | $25.47 | 1% | 1% | 97% | 91% | 84% |
| Arts, Entertainment & Recreation | 242 | 12.3 | $14.44 | 59% | 66% | 18% | 39% | 31% |
| Construction | 240 | 2.9 | $19.35 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 46% | 23% |
| Administrative Support & Waste Mgmt. Services | 90 | 3.2 | $19.40 | 16% | 0% | 35% | 34% | 5% |
| Information | 75 | 3.5 | $14.24 | 62% | 2% | 26% | 33% | 21% |
| Finance & Insurance | 69 | 1.1 | $23.25 | 21% | 0% | 58% | 28% | 39% |
| Management of Companies | 36 | 2.4 | $20.92 | 14% | 0% | 45% | 65% | 57% |
| Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, Q2 2022 | ||||||||
Despite the unprecedented levels of current demand and difficulty employers are having in filling them, it is projected that the Southwest region will experience a significant increase in employment over the next 10 years, with approximately 7,700 new jobs expected. DEED's Employment Projections through 2030 consider the initial job counts affected by the pandemic in 2020, indicating that a portion of the anticipated growth is attributed to the recovery of lost jobs. Nonetheless, even after the region reaches pre-pandemic employment levels, there is expected to be additional growth.
This includes faster gains in the industries hardest hit during the pandemic, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Accommodation & Food Services, and Other Services, which typically are not among the fastest-growing industries in the 10-year forecasts. To that end, Health Care & Social Assistance is again expected to be the largest growing and one of the fastest growing industries, potentially accounting for just over one-third of total projected job gains through 2030.
Other industries that are expected to see steady growth in the region include Educational Services, Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation & Warehousing, and Public Administration. In contrast, only four industries are projected to lose jobs over the decade, with the biggest decline predicted in Retail Trade as consumer behaviors continue to change, and ongoing declines for self-employed and agriculture workers. Although relatively small, Information is expected to see the fastest decline, cutting 7% of employment from 2020 to 2030 (Table 2).
| Table 2. Southwest Minnesota Industry Employment Projections, 2020-2030 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry | Estimated Employment 2020 | Projected Employment 2030 | Percent Change 2020-2030 | Numeric Change 2020-2030 |
| Total, All Industries | 195,812 | 203,504 | 3.9% | 7,692 |
| Health Care & Social Assistance | 29,352 | 32,081 | 9.3% | 2,729 |
| Manufacturing | 30,107 | 30,719 | 2.0% | 612 |
| Self-Employed & Unpaid Family Workers | 21,926 | 21,257 | -3.1% | -669 |
| Retail Trade | 18,569 | 17,653 | -4.9% | -916 |
| Educational Services | 15,564 | 16,274 | 4.6% | 710 |
| Public Administration | 13,193 | 13,517 | 2.5% | 324 |
| Accommodation & Food Services | 10,089 | 12,268 | 21.6% | 2,179 |
| Wholesale Trade | 8,045 | 8,118 | 0.9% | 73 |
| Construction | 7,573 | 8,082 | 6.7% | 509 |
| Transportation & Warehousing | 7,385 | 7,817 | 5.8% | 432 |
| Other Services | 6,756 | 7,462 | 10.4% | 706 |
| Finance & Insurance | 6,780 | 6,921 | 2.1% | 141 |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting | 5,674 | 5,753 | 1.4% | 79 |
| Professional & Technical Services | 3,788 | 4,006 | 5.8% | 218 |
| Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt. Services | 3,421 | 3,636 | 6.3% | 215 |
| Arts, Entertainment & Recreation | 1,655 | 2,114 | 27.7% | 459 |
| Information | 2,152 | 2,001 | -7.0% | -151 |
| Management of Companies | 1,495 | 1,506 | 0.7% | 11 |
| Real Estate & Rental & Leasing | 1,318 | 1,311 | -0.5% | -7 |
| Utilities | 713 | 735 | 3.1% | 22 |
| Mining | 257 | 273 | 6.2% | 16 |
| Source: DEED 2020-2030 Employment Outlook | ||||
Of the 22 occupational groups, 19 are projected to gain jobs in Southwest in the next decade. Of these gains, the occupational groups with the highest total job growth in the region include Food Preparation & Serving Related (2,026 jobs), Healthcare Support (1,322 jobs), and Transportation & Material Moving occupations (986 jobs).
When we examine the Food Preparation & Serving Related occupational group in more detail, it becomes apparent that certain occupations within this group are projected to experience substantial growth. Among these occupations, Fast Food & Counter Workers are expected to see the highest increase with a gain of 593 jobs. Cooks are also projected to experience significant growth, with an expected gain of 533 jobs, followed by Waiters & Waitresses with a gain of 315 jobs. Remarkably, these three occupations collectively account for 64% of the total job openings within the Food Preparation & Serving Related occupational group.
Of the Healthcare Support occupational group, Home Health & Personal Care Aides are expected to gain 1,147 jobs from 2020 to 2030. This could be caused by the aging population in Southwest Minnesota. In addition, Medical Assistants are expected to gain 68 jobs, and Massage Therapists are expected to gain 35 new jobs. Other occupations that are expected to grow include Physical Therapist Assistants (22 jobs or 25.6%) and Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers (10 jobs or 14.1%).
Transportation & Material Moving occupations represent the third major group expected to witness growth in the coming decade. Within this group, specific occupations stand out for projected job gains. Passenger Vehicle Drivers are anticipated to gain 418 jobs, while Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are projected to increase by 211 jobs. Stockers & Order Fillers are also expected to experience growth, adding 87 jobs as demand for online shopping, delivery, and pickup rises.
Of particular interest, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are forecasted to have a total of 5,101 job openings from 2020 to 2030. These openings encompass employment growth, labor market exits, and occupational transfers. This trend is not limited to Southwest Minnesota alone, but is observed throughout the state of Minnesota and the United States as a whole. For Minnesota, the total job openings from 2020 to 2030 are projected to be 43,441, while the United States is expected to have 2.3 million job openings during the same period. To address the growing need for workers in the transportation industry, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has introduced the Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot Program. This initiative allows individuals between the ages of 18 and 20 years to obtain a commercial driver's license and operate within their home state, providing a potential solution to combat the workforce shortage in this field1.
Among the occupational groups in Southwest Minnesota, three are projected to experience declines in employment. These include Office & Administrative Support occupations, expected to decrease by 999 jobs or 4.6%, Sales & Related occupations with a decline of 832 jobs or 4.7%, and Production occupations with a decrease of 49 jobs or 0.2%. It is noteworthy that these declining trends are not limited to Southwest alone. Every region in Minnesota is projected to witness a decline in Sales & Related and Office & Administrative Support occupations, suggesting a broader statewide pattern.
The decline in Office & Administrative Support occupations can be attributed to the automation of tasks through technological systems and applications. As businesses adopt more advanced technologies to streamline operations and improve efficiency, certain administrative tasks previously performed by human workers may now be automated. This shift leads to a reduced demand for workers in these occupations. Similarly, Sales & Related occupations are facing challenges from changing consumer behaviors and the rise of e-commerce.
| Table 3. Regional Employment Projections, 2020-2030 - Southwest Minnesota | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Occupational Group |
2020 Estimate | 2030 Projection | 2020-2030 Percent Change | Total Job Growth Change | Labor Force Exit Openings | Transfer Openings | 2020-2030 Total Hires | Median Hourly Wage (2022 Q1) |
| Total, All Occupations | 195,812 | 203,504 | 3.9% | 7,692 | 89,195 | 130,276 | 227,163 | $20.15 |
| Food Preparation & Serving Related | 11,786 | 13,812 | 17.2% | 2,026 | 9,744 | 12,962 | 24,732 | $14.34 |
| Healthcare Support | 10,750 | 12,072 | 12.3% | 1,322 | 7,049 | 6,686 | 15,057 | $15.77 |
| Transportation & Material Moving | 15,678 | 16,664 | 6.3% | 986 | 7,521 | 12,189 | 20,696 | $19.58 |
| Education, Training, & Library | 11,135 | 11,990 | 7.7% | 855 | 4,608 | 5,242 | 10,705 | $24.76 |
| Healthcare Practitioners & Technical | 10,405 | 11,134 | 7.0% | 729 | 2,738 | 3,279 | 6,746 | $36.73 |
| Installation, Maintenance & Repair | 8,376 | 8,891 | 6.1% | 515 | 2,660 | 5,493 | 8,668 | $24.41 |
| Personal Care and Service | 5,354 | 5,800 | 8.3% | 446 | 3,452 | 4,359 | 8,257 | $15.23 |
| Community & Social Service | 4,553 | 4,987 | 9.5% | 434 | 1,676 | 3,061 | 5,171 | $24.72 |
| Construction & Extraction | 8,525 | 8,958 | 5.1% | 433 | 2,623 | 5,887 | 8,943 | $24.58 |
| Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. | 6,298 | 6,712 | 6.6% | 414 | 3,715 | 4,760 | 8,889 | $16.22 |
| Management | 19,789 | 20,101 | 1.6% | 312 | 8,590 | 8,844 | 17,746 | $40.82 |
| Business & Financial Operations | 6,984 | 7,285 | 4.3% | 301 | 1,897 | 4,129 | 6,327 | $31.18 |
| Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media | 2,716 | 2,912 | 7.2% | 196 | 1,129 | 1,756 | 3,081 | $22.41 |
| Architecture & Engineering | 2,593 | 2,767 | 6.7% | 174 | 682 | 1,397 | 2,253 | $36.68 |
| Protective Service | 2,770 | 2,895 | 4.5% | 125 | 1,134 | 1,680 | 2,939 | $26.33 |
| Life, Physical & Social Science | 2,380 | 2,491 | 4.7% | 111 | 533 | 1,891 | 2,535 | $30.83 |
| Computer & Mathematical | 2,110 | 2,193 | 3.9% | 83 | 432 | 1,071 | 1,586 | $37.75 |
| Farming, Fishing & Forestry | 3,891 | 3,954 | 1.6% | 63 | 1,651 | 4,455 | 6,169 | $18.84 |
| Legal | 667 | 714 | 7.0% | 47 | 194 | 278 | 519 | $31.33 |
| Production | 19,608 | 19,559 | -0.2% | -49 | 7,349 | 14,152 | 21,452 | $19.55 |
| Sales & Related | 17,624 | 16,792 | -4.7% | -832 | 9,573 | 13,865 | 22,606 | $15.19 |
| Office & Administrative Support | 21,820 | 20,821 | -4.6% | -999 | 10,245 | 12,840 | 22,086 | $19.65 |
| Source: DEED Employment Outlook, Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics | ||||||||
Southwest Minnesota's labor market is currently experiencing significant worker demand, with numerous job vacancies available across various industries and occupational groups. This high worker demand is further amplified by the region's projected job growth from 2020 to 2030. These projections indicate that Southwest Minnesota will continue to offer many job opportunities in the coming years, highlighting the region's promising economic outlook and potential for sustained employment growth.
