The presence of such industry powerhouses as Polaris, Arctic Cat and New Flyer make Northwest Minnesota a hub of transportation equipment manufacturing.
From wheat and potatoes to soybeans and sugar beets, the region is a major producer and processor of food staples and specialty agricultural products.
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3/20/2023 9:00:00 AM
Anthony Schaffhauser
Minnesota's Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program provides a precise record of the employment changes during and since the Pandemic Recession. Northwest Minnesota's employment dropped by -13,847 jobs or -6.4% from first quarter to second quarter 2020, compared to Minnesota's -10.3% employment drop. Compared to the same quarter the previous year, Northwest was down -25,231 jobs, an -11.1% decline; while the state was down -12.3%.
Two years later in second quarter 2022, the Northwest region had regained 22,355 jobs, an 11.1% increase, while Minnesota experienced an 11.9% employment rebound. By third quarter 2022, which is the most recent QCEW data now available, the Northwest was back to 99.4% of its employment level in third quarter 2019, while Minnesota was at 98.7%.
I have no doubt that Minnesota and the Northwest region could have easily regained all the jobs had there been enough workers in the labor market to fill open positions, but there are workforce shortages in all areas of the state. So which groups have entered, returned, or exited Northwest's workforce?
Thanks to the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program in partnership with states including Minnesota we can answer this question. The Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) program links job counts from QCEW with basic demographic characteristics of the employees. Like QCEW, these data do not include self-employed or contract workers, nor railroad workers, because these jobs are not covered by state unemployment insurance. The data are available by quarter, currently up to second quarter 2022. Table 1 shows the change in regional employment by age and sex.
| Table 1: Northwest Minnesota Employment (Number of Jobs Held) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Second Quarter 2020 | Second Quarter 2022 | Change | % Change | ||||
| Age | Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | Male |
| 14-18 | 4,449 | 3,634 | 5,745 | 4,422 | +1,296 | +788 | +29.1% | +21.7% |
| 19-21 | 5,600 | 4,961 | 5,658 | 5,013 | +58 | +52 | +1.0% | +1.0% |
| 22-24 | 5,732 | 5,557 | 5,561 | 5,511 | -171 | -46 | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 25-34 | 20,549 | 20,042 | 19,811 | 19,875 | -738 | -167 | -3.6% | -0.8% |
| 35-44 | 23,223 | 21,215 | 22,985 | 22,029 | -238 | +814 | -1.0% | +3.8% |
| 45-54 | 21,200 | 18,056 | 20,672 | 18,479 | -528 | +423 | -2.5% | +2.3% |
| 55-64 | 22,775 | 18,399 | 21,332 | 18,342 | -1,443 | -57 | -6.3% | -0.3% |
| 65-99 | 7,475 | 7,457 | 8,456 | 8,054 | +981 | +597 | +13.1% | +8.0% |
| Total | 111,003 | 99,321 | 110,220 | 101,725 | -783 | +2,404 | -0.7% | +2.4% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators
The differences are striking, particularly the drop for females aged 22 to 64 and the gain for the youngest and oldest workers. Employment by high school-aged youth surged, drawn in by ubiquitously available jobs and rapidly increasing wages for entry-level positions. Jobs held by female teenagers increased more than males, both in number and percent, and they also had greater covered employment to begin with. Employment of youth aged 19 to 21 also increased slightly and was more evenly balanced between the sexes. It also appears that the availability of jobs with higher wages and increased inflation induced many older workers to unretire. Those past the traditional retirement age of 65 had the second fastest growth in employment in the past two years, with females again increasing more than males.
However, it is only youth and seniors where females outpace males in employment growth. Every other age group saw declines in female employment since 2020. The 22 to 34 and 55 to 64 year old age groups showed a small drop in male employment, and had the smallest drops of all age and sex cohorts as well. This is consistent with state and national research that points to caregiving as one of the main drivers of decreased labor force participation, along with increased rates of retirement, decreased immigration, and health impacts of Long-COVID. The impact of caregiving in keeping Northwest Minnesota residents out of the workforce is evident in Table 1.
The second and third largest percentage drops are for females aged 22 to 34, which is the age range most likely to have infants and young children. Males in this age range also have the largest drops, likely also from child care demands. While QCEW shows employment in the Child Day Care industry increased by 52 jobs in Northwest Minnesota from second quarter 2019 to second quarter 2022, this does not include individuals who provide child care as their own business.
Anecdotally, my contacts knowledgeable about child care inform me that many small child care businesses ceased operations during the pandemic, and these owner-operated businesses are more prevalent in the Northwest. Statewide, child care employment dropped -4.5% from second quarter 2019 to second quarter 2022.
Finally, the largest percentage drop in jobs held was for females aged 55 to 64. While this may appear to be an impact from early retirement, it is remarkable that females had a 21 times greater percentage drop than males. This only makes sense considering that females in this age group are much more likely to be caring for a parent (and/or grandkids) than males. Adding to the challenges faced by people caring for aging relatives, QCEW shows employment in the Nursing & Residential Care industry decreased by -1,459 jobs or -10.1% in Northwest Minnesota from second quarter 2019 to second quarter 2022, a higher percentage drop than the statewide -8.5% drop. The lack of available elder care may help explain the large drop in females in this age group in the labor force.
Stay tuned for a future blog examining the employment changes of Northwest Minnesota's racial and ethnic groups in the pandemic recovery.
Contact Anthony Schaffhauser at anthony.schaffhauser@state.mn.us.
