by Cameron Macht
June 2013
After leading the state in job growth over the last 10 years, Central Minnesota is again projected to be the fastest growing region of the state in the future according to DEED's Employment Projections. The 13-county planning region is expected to gain more than 50,000 net new jobs in the next decade, an 18.3 percent growth rate, which is 5 percent faster than the state of Minnesota as a whole.
Central Minnesota has about 10 percent of the state's total employment, but is expected to account for almost 15 percent of the state's employment growth from 2010 to 2020. If these trends hold true, Central Minnesota may have almost 335,000 jobs by the end of the decade (Table 1).
| Central Minnesota Industry Employment Projections, 2010 to 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAICS Industry Title | Estimated Employment 2010 | Projected Employment 2020 | Percent Change 2010-2020 | Numeric Change 2010-2020 |
| Total, All Industries | 281,615 | 333,237 | 18.3% | 51,622 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 40,469 | 56,783 | 40.3% | 16,314 |
| Construction | 11,714 | 17,757 | 51.6% | 6,043 |
| Retail Trade | 33,066 | 37,527 | 13.5% | 4,461 |
| Manufacturing | 35,603 | 39,725 | 11.6% | 4,122 |
| Administrative Support and Waste Management Services | 9,146 | 12,518 | 36.9% | 3,372 |
| Nonagricultural Self-employed | 18,105 | 20,916 | 15.5% | 2,811 |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 19,174 | 21,562 | 12.5% | 2,388 |
| Public Administration | 42,982 | 45,321 | 5.4% | 2,339 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 7,406 | 9,296 | 25.5% | 1,890 |
| Wholesale Trade | 9,320 | 11,172 | 19.9% | 1,852 |
| Professional and Technical Services | 5,817 | 7,528 | 29.4% | 1,711 |
| Other Services | 11,303 | 12,823 | 13.4% | 1,520 |
| Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | 5,861 | 7,100 | 21.1% | 1,239 |
| Finance and Insurance | 6,631 | 7,506 | 13.2% | 875 |
| Real Estate, Rental and Leasing | 2,009 | 2,341 | 16.5% | 332 |
| Educational Services | 2,427 | 2,689 | 10.8% | 262 |
| Management of Companies | 1,444 | 1,700 | 17.7% | 256 |
| Utilities | 2,410 | 2,614 | 8.5% | 204 |
| Information | 3,328 | 3,520 | 5.8% | 192 |
| Mining | 265 | 300 | 13.2% | 35 |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting | 5,362 | 5,089 | -5.1% | -273 |
| Agricultural Self-employed | 7,773 | 7,450 | -4.2% | -323 |
| Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections | ||||
All but one of Central Minnesota's major industries are projected to grow in the next decade, including 13 industries adding more than 1,000 jobs apiece.
Nearly one-third of the new jobs are expected to be created in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry, which is also expected to be the second fastest growing industry. If recent trends continue, Health Care and Social Assistance may jump from about 40,500 jobs in 2010 to almost 57,000 jobs in 2020, a 40.3 percent increase.
After struggling during the recession and recovery, the Construction industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry in the next 10 years. As population growth resumes in the region, Construction is anticipated to add more than 6,000 jobs through 2020, a 51.6 percent growth rate.
Likewise, the Manufacturing industry is expected to rebound in Central Minnesota, potentially adding just over 4,000 jobs in the next 10 years, an 11.6 percent expansion. That job count would still be about 6,000 jobs lower than it was at the turn of the century, when there were nearly 46,000 manufacturing jobs in the region. However, the related Administrative Support and Waste Management Services industry - which includes the temporary staffing agencies that many manufacturers are now using to adjust their workforce levels quickly- is also projected to gain almost 3,400 jobs.
As consumer confidence returns, Retail Trade is anticipated to offer 4,500 net new jobs, while Accommodation and Food Services could welcome almost 2,400 net new jobs. Combined, those two customer-friendly industries would have just under 60,000 jobs in the region by 2020, keeping it at about 18 percent of total employment.
Only Agriculture is expected to see job declines in the next decade. Covered employment in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting is expected to drop by about 275 jobs, while self-employment in Agriculture is projected to fall about 325 jobs, for a total loss of 600 agriculture jobs in the region.
Likewise, all but one occupational group is expected to grow in the region - ironically, the farming, fishing, and forestry group is the only one projected to wilt. The other 21 occupational groups should see employment expansion, ranging from a 5 percent increase in management occupations to a 40 percent jump in personal care and service occupations (Table 2).
| Central Minnesota Occupation Employment Projections, 2010 to 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC Occupational Title | Estimated Employment 2010 | Projected Employment 2020 | Percent Change 2010 - 2020 | Numeric Change 2010 - 2020 | 2010 - 2020 Replacement Openings | 2010 - 2020 Total Openings |
| Total, All Occupations | 281,615 | 333,237 | 18.30% | 51,622 | 66,890 | 119,730 |
| Management Occupations | 19,527 | 20,527 | 5.10% | 1,000 | 4,010 | 5,420 |
| Business and Financial Operations Occupations | 9,440 | 11,368 | 20.40% | 1,928 | 1,900 | 3,830 |
| Computer and Mathematical Occupations | 2,413 | 2,883 | 19.50% | 470 | 460 | 930 |
| Architecture and Engineering Occupations | 2,639 | 2,880 | 9.10% | 241 | 580 | 850 |
| Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations | 1,303 | 1,471 | 12.90% | 168 | 390 | 560 |
| Community and Social Service Occupations | 5,966 | 7,313 | 22.60% | 1,347 | 1,270 | 2,620 |
| Legal Occupations | 1,097 | 1,245 | 13.50% | 148 | 190 | 340 |
| Education, Training, and Library Occupations | 16,964 | 18,582 | 9.50% | 1,618 | 3,870 | 5,490 |
| Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations | 3,882 | 4,495 | 15.80% | 613 | 1,030 | 1,670 |
| Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations | 15,666 | 19,874 | 26.90% | 4,208 | 3,210 | 7,420 |
| Healthcare Support Occupations | 11,551 | 15,759 | 36.40% | 4,208 | 1,600 | 5,810 |
| Protective Service Occupations | 3,891 | 4,259 | 9.50% | 368 | 1,090 | 1,460 |
| Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations | 24,779 | 28,098 | 13.40% | 3,319 | 8,640 | 11,970 |
| Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations | 9,382 | 11,111 | 18.40% | 1,729 | 1,670 | 3,400 |
| Personal Care and Service Occupations | 14,931 | 20,902 | 40.00% | 5,971 | 3,240 | 9,230 |
| Sales and Related Occupations | 28,089 | 32,377 | 15.30% | 4,288 | 8,850 | 13,150 |
| Office and Administrative Support Occupations | 37,781 | 43,070 | 14.00% | 5,289 | 8,310 | 13,930 |
| Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations | 3,623 | 3,510 | -3.10% | -113 | 1,080 | 1,120 |
| Construction and Extraction Occupations | 12,566 | 17,246 | 37.20% | 4,680 | 2,820 | 7,500 |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations | 10,982 | 13,495 | 22.90% | 2,513 | 2,580 | 5,110 |
| Production Occupations | 26,281 | 29,781 | 13.30% | 3,500 | 5,540 | 9,230 |
| Transportation and Material Moving Occupations | 18,862 | 22,991 | 21.90% | 4,129 | 4,560 | 8,700 |
| Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections | ||||||
Central Minnesota is expected to see more than 35 percent growth rates in construction and extraction jobs and health care support occupations, as well as more than 20 percent growth in the number of health care practitioners, installation, maintenance, and repair occupations, community and social service jobs, transportation and material moving occupations, and business and financial operations professionals.
The largest number of new jobs are expected to be created in personal care and service, office and administrative support, construction and extraction, sales and related, health care practitioners and health care support, and transportation and material moving occupations, which should all gain more than 4,000 net new jobs.
However, new jobs are just one part of the employment growth picture. DEED's occupational projections also include replacement openings, which are an estimate of the need for new workforce entrants to replace workers who leave an occupation. Even jobs with declining employment levels will have openings as existing workers retire or otherwise change careers.
As shown in Table 2, more than half of the total openings in the region will be replacements, accounting for about 15,000 more job openings than net new jobs created. In fact, more than two-thirds (about 365 of the 535) of the occupations in Central Minnesota are expected to have more replacement openings than new jobs created.
Some traditional occupations - such as waiters and waitresses and cashiers - will have thousands of replacement openings but very few new jobs created, while other emerging occupations - such as personal care aides and home health aides - will have thousands of new jobs but very few replacements (Figure 1).
About 165 occupations are projected to have at least 75 percent of their total openings come from replacement workers, including elementary and secondary school teachers, police and sheriff's patrol officers, highway maintenance workers, and farmworkers. While these careers aren't expected to see new job growth, there will still be opportunities for job seekers as existing workers start retiring.
In contrast, just over 20 occupations were projected to have at least 75 percent of their total openings from new jobs created, including software developers, occupational and physical therapy assistants and therapists, veterinary technicians, personal care aides, construction laborers, and brickmasons and cement masons. These jobs tend to have the fastest growth rates, with most expected to increase by about 50 percent.
DEED's employment projections are valuable to students and job seekers who are making career planning decisions. Almost two-fifths of the 50 fastest growing occupations in the region are in the Construction industry, while another one-fourth are in Health Care and Social Assistance.
The fastest growing job, veterinary technologists and technicians, is expected nearly to double from 2010 to 2020. According to its detailed occupational description on CAREERwise Education, most veterinary technicians have an associate degree.1 Similarly, veterinarians are projected to be the 11th fastest growing career in the region, but require a Doctor of Veterinary Medicine (DVM) degree.2
Those who might be thinking of investing time and money in postsecondary education need to know what jobs will be around when they graduate. Including the two described above, 19 of the 50 fastest growing occupations in the region require postsecondary vocational training, either an associate, bachelor's, master's, or professional degree.
However, the other 31 fastest growing jobs can be gained with on-the-job training, ranging from short-term (one month or less) to long-term (12 months or more). Despite the lower educational requirements, many of these occupations are still relatively well-paying, especially those in the Construction industry. For example, brickmasons - projected to be the fifth fastest growing occupation in the region - earn more than $26 an hour in Central Minnesota and can typically learn their craft with long-term on-the-job training (Table 3).
Students and job seekers can study the projected growth rates, educational requirements, and median wages for hundreds of careers through CAREERwise Education (www.careerwise.minnstate.edu) and DEED's Employment Projections.
| Fastest Growing Jobs in Central Minnesota, 2010 to 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC Occupational Title | Estimated Employment 2010 | Projected Employment 2020 | Percent Change 2010 - 2020 | 2010 - 2020 Total Openings | Most Common Education or Training Requirements | Median Hourly Wage |
| Veterinary Technologists and Technicians | 201 | 389 | 93.5 | 230 | Associate degree | $15.20 |
| Helpers - Brickmasons, Blockmasons,
and Stonemasons |
55 | 105 | 90.9 | 70 | Short-term on-the-job training | $14.27 |
| Glaziers | 54 | 96 | 77.8 | 60 | Long-term on-the-job training | $20.09 |
| Personal Care Aides | 5,263 | 9,204 | 74.9 | 4,360 | Short-term on-the-job training | $10.66 |
| Brickmasons and Blockmasons | 242 | 416 | 71.9 | 220 | Long-term on-the-job training | $26.18 |
| Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers | 411 | 686 | 66.9 | 340 | Long-term on-the-job training | $26.30 |
| Marriage and Family Therapists | 33 | 55 | 66.7 | 30 | Master's degree | $22.67 |
| Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers | 53 | 87 | 64.2 | 40 | Postsecondary voc. training | $26.73 |
| Helpers - Carpenters | 78 | 128 | 64.1 | 70 | Short-term on-the-job training | $12.79 |
| Home Health Aides | 4,883 | 7,750 | 58.7 | 3,500 | Short-term on-the-job training | $10.88 |
| Veterinarians | 185 | 293 | 58.4 | 150 | Professional degree | $35.23 |
| Helpers, Construction Trades, All Other | 48 | 76 | 58.3 | 40 | Short-term on-the-job training | $9.19 |
| Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 1,255 | 1,967 | 56.7 | 1,070 | Long-term on-the-job training | $25.08 |
| Physical Therapist Assistants | 119 | 186 | 56.3 | 90 | Associate degree | $20.45 |
| Mechanical Door Repairers | 89 | 138 | 55.1 | 70 | Long-term on-the-job training | $21.13 |
| Source:Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OES) | ||||||
1Veterinary Technologists and Technicians. careerwise.minnstate.edu/careers
2Veterinarians. careerwise.minnstate.edu/careers
